Skip to content

Holiday Ecommerce
Tracker 2026:
Sales, Fraud & Agentic Data

Weekly holiday ecommerce sales, fraud and agentic commerce data from the Signifyd Commerce Network, comparing Q4 2026 to Q4 2025.

Subscribe to our mailing list

2026 HOLIDAY SEASON PREDICTIONS

ECOMMERCE FORECAST

+7%

Signifyd expects U.S. online same-store sales to grow 7% in Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025.

AGENTIC COMMERCE

+30%

Signifyd expects AI-assisted orders to carry 30% higher AOV than orders from other channels.

FRAUD PREDICTION

+20%

Signifyd expects Fraud attempts to rise 20%, while AOV of those attempts falls 8%.

HOLIDAY ECOMMERCE SALES

Holiday ecommerce sales: Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025

Signifyd projects same-store ecommerce sales will increase 7% in Q4 over a year ago. See how the numbers on the Commerce Network are tracking so far this season.

Sales by vertical

YoY % change in total order value, Q4 to date, ranked by growth

HOLIDAY FRAUD TRENDS

Holiday fraud trends 2026

Fraud pressure is the value of orders that Signifyd’s models determine are very risky. Signifyd’s analysis points to a holiday season of increased fraud attempts consisting of lower value orders. See what’s happening today.

Fraud Pressure by Vertical

YoY % Fraud pressure (value of risky orders), Q4 to date, ranked by growth

AI SHOPPING & AGENTIC COMMERCE

AI shopping and agentic commerce during the holidays

Agentic assisted orders, when a shopper is sent to a merchant by an AI chatbot or an LLM, typically carry a higher average order value than those referred by other channels.

PRICING & DISCOUNTING

Pricing and discounting during the holidays

Holidays are about low prices and big savings for consumers. See how  discounts and online inflation are running this holiday season. Signifyd’s U.S. Ecommerce Price Index charts the change in online prices year-over-year.

RELATED RESOURCES

Go beyond the numbers.

Hear from fraud and risk professionals.

The Fraudcast

A monthly virtual get together for fraud and risk leaders and practitioners to talk about trends, exchange advice and connect.
Join the next call →

Crimes & Cocktails: Holiday Fraud Edition

Real fraud and abuse schemes that plague merchants every holiday season and the prevention tactics your team can implement now before volume spikes.
Watch the webinar →

Holiday return schemes & prevention strategies

Eight return fraud and abuse schemes to watch for this holiday season and how to stop them without slowing down refunds for honest shoppers.
Read the blog →

Protect your holiday revenue from fraud and abuse

See how Signifyd stops fraud, return abuse and chargebacks while approving more good orders at peak volume.

Watch the demo

HOW WE MEASURE

How we measure holiday ecommerce data

Where the data comes from

Aggregated, anonymized orders from thousands of merchants on the Signifyd Commerce Network, reflecting same-store sales.

How we define a week

Weeks run Wednesday to Tuesday on the Holiday Tracker, so the Cyber Five falls entirely in the same week for reporting purposes.

What fraud pressure means

The year-over-year change in the value of orders Signifyd's models determine are very risky.

How we measure AI-referred orders

An order counts as AI-referred when a shopper is referred to a merchant by an AI chatbot or LLM.

How often the data updates

Each section updates weekly on Wednesdays throughout Q4. The Cyber Five section updates daily during the period.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Common questions about the Holiday Ecommerce Tracker

THE SIGNIFYD GUARANTEE

Every decision clear.
Every outcome guaranteed.

We back every decision with a financial guarantee, because 15 years of data and refinement means we're confident enough to stake money on it. When Signifyd approves an order, you can act on it. If we're wrong, we cover it.