When we released the 2026 edition of The State of Fraud report, one conclusion stood out: North America fraud trends are no longer evolving in lockstep with ecommerce growth.
The report challenged a long-held assumption in ecommerce that fraud grows alongside sales. A deeper look at North American transaction data reveals that while online sales continue to grow, fraud is expanding at a dramatically faster rate.
Rather than simply keeping pace with commerce, fraud is accelerating in categories where changing shopping behaviors, fulfillment models and product characteristics create greater opportunities for abuse.
TL;DR
- Fraud is outpacing sales growth. Signifyd found that North American ecommerce sales across all verticals grew 8.35% YoY in H1 2026 and North American fraud pressure jumped 38.6% during the same period. First-party fraud is also on the rise, with significantly not as described (SNAD) claims up 48% year over year.
- Fraud follows opportunity, not revenue. Signifyd’s data shows that categories like Business Supplies and Consumer Medical saw sharp fraud spikes despite modest sales, while fast-growing Auto, Parts & Tires saw fraud growth outpace its own revenue gains.
- AI-assisted search GMV surged 815.91% YoY, per Signifyd H1 2026 data. Ecommerce volume originating from AI agent referrals skyrocketed, solidifying AI as a primary path to purchase.
- Changing shopping behavior is opening new gaps. Larger carts, more BOPIS, cards and store credit are all creating fresh friction points for fraudsters to exploit.
Where is fraud outpacing ecommerce growth?
Understanding today’s ecommerce environment requires looking beyond topline growth and examining where sales and fraud begin to diverge.
The first half of 2026 paints a positive picture for North American ecommerce. Same store sales across Signifyd’s merchant network grew 8.35% year over year, led by Grocery & Household Goods, Leisure & Outdoor and Auto, Parts & Tires.
On its own, the data reflects a healthy ecommerce market. But comparing those same categories against fraud activity tells a very different story.
Overall fraud pressure increased 38.6% during the same period, which is over four times faster than sales. More importantly, fraud isn’t increasing where sales are strongest; it’s concentrating where criminals see the greatest opportunity.
Business Supplies and Consumer Medical saw some of the sharpest increases in fraud despite modest sales growth. Meanwhile Auto, Parts & Tires, one of the fastest-growing retail sectors, experienced fraud growth that far outpaced revenue growth.
The comparison underscores an ongoing shift for ecommerce; fraud trends are becoming increasingly difficult to anticipate. Fraud doesn’t follow traditional sales patterns. Criminals are targeting sectors based on opportunity rather than volume, exploiting products, purchasing behaviors and fulfillment models that offer the greatest return with the least resistance.
For retailers, these findings change how risk should be evaluated. While fraud has historically grown with ecommerce growth, fraud is now accelerating in new ways and in new places along the customer journey. The challenge is increasingly tied to behavior, fulfillment models and the ease with which fraudsters can exploit specific parts of the customer journey.
How is changing consumer behavior creating new fraud opportunities?
The divergence between sales and fraud isn’t happening in isolation. It’s unfolding alongside a large shift in how consumers discover, purchase and receive products.
North American shoppers are assembling larger carts, choosing more Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) options, relying more on gift cards and store credits and quickly adopting AI-powered search. In fact, ecommerce sales originating from AI-assisted search increased more than 815% during the first half of 2026, per Signifyd findings.
Each of these changes represents progress for ecommerce. They create faster, more convenient and more personalized shopping experiences that help retailers strengthen customer relationships and drive growth. But they also reshape the customer journey, creating new opportunities for fraudsters to exploit points of weakness brought on by merchants’ desire to provide friction-free shopping, checkout, fulfillment, refunds and returns.
They also serve as a reminder that fraud threats are anything but static. Fraudsters will constantly shift tactics and targets in search of the path of least resistance up and down the entire shopping journey.
The question for merchants is no longer simply “Where are we growing?” It’s also, “Where are we becoming more vulnerable as we grow?” Answering both is becoming essential to profitable, sustainable growth. Protecting revenue requires understanding where commerce is expanding while recognizing how evolving consumer behavior is reshaping fraud risk at every step of the customer journey.
Want deeper insights into the state of fraud and what it means for ecommerce in 2026? Read Signifyd’s 2026 State of Fraud Report for the complete data plus regional breakdowns and case studies.
Frequently asked questions about the state of fraud and ecommerce
What are the biggest ecommerce fraud trends in 2026?
Signifyd’s 2026 State of Fraud report found that artificial intelligence (AI) is fundamentally changing the economics of ecommerce. Attacks are becoming faster, more scalable and increasingly difficult to isolate to a single point in the customer journey. Fraud is expanding at an accelerating rate beyond traditional payment to include account takeover, returns abuse, Buy Online, Pick Up In Store (BOPIS) fraud and other forms of consumer abuse.
How is ecommerce fraud increasing faster than online sales?
Recent North America transaction data from Signifyd suggests it is. While ecommerce sales continued to grow during the first half of 2026, fraud pressure increased at a significantly faster pace. The findings indicate that fraud is concentrated in specific retail categories and customer behaviors rather than simply growing alongside overall ecommerce activity.
How are retailers growing ecommerce revenue without increasing fraud?
The most successful retailers no longer treat fraud prevention and revenue growth as competing priorities. Instead, they use data and technology to identify legitimate customers, reduce unnecessary friction at checkout and strengthen protection across the customer journey, helping increase conversion while managing risk.
How is AI changing ecommerce?
AI is transforming ecommerce for both consumers and retailers. Consumers are increasingly using AI to discover products and make purchasing decisions, while retailers are applying AI to improve personalization, automate operations and enhance customer experience. At the same time, fraudsters are using AI to make attacks faster and more sophisticated, requiring businesses to continually adapt.
What should retailers focus on to succeed in today’s ecommerce environment?
Building sustainable ecommerce growth requires more than increasing sales. Retailers should monitor changing consumer behaviors, optimize the customer experience, adapt to new shopping channels and fulfillment models and ensure fraud strategies evolve alongside the business to protect both revenue and customer trust.
