The Global State of Commerce 2026
How the economy, consumer anxiety and the agentic transformation are shaping retail
Economic disruption and consumer concerns about the future are creating headwinds for online merchants. But the AI boom is providing a counterweight, at least for the economic winners. It’s enough of a boost that ecommerce sales rose by 6% in 2025, according to Signifyd data.
This report digs into the economic health of the U.S., Latin America, the UK and Europe and details the effect of the rising rate of online returns and the emergence of agentic commerce on the retail industry.
Ecommerce Trends Report: Key Trends Shaping Online Commerce in 2026
Complete this form to get the report
Economic outlook 2026
A massive warehouse in Louisiana sums up the U.S. economy in a nutshell. Amazon’s new SHV1 fulfillment center is a model for the AI-optimized distribution system that Amazon sees as its future.
Once deployed nationwide, the model will save Amazon from hiring more than half a million workers. That will free up capital to invest in more AI — for fulfillment, sure. But also for agentic commerce — a sales channel that has been christened as inevitable by ecommerce experts.
The forces at play have workers — in all fields — anxious about their future prospects, meaning they are less prone to spend as consumers. But AI initiatives are also powering the economy, providing high-paying jobs and driving up the value of publicly traded companies.
Throw in stubborn inflation, ending the year up 2.7% compared to the end of 2024, and tariffs that are taxing imports at levels not seen since the Great Depression, and you get an economy that looks very different depending on where you sit.
The reality: a K-shaped income distribution in which the top 10% of earners are responsible for half of the consumer spending, including powering ecommerce growth.
The economic reality has consumer confidence near an all-time low — 53 on a scale where 100 equals neutral. Above is good. Below is bad.
After trending down early in 2025, inflation resumed its upward march about the time the Trump Administration announced new tariffs. Year-over-year inflation growth returned to the level at the beginning of the year, before dropping slightly in December.
u.s annual inflation rate (2025)
Consumer spending habits
Retail sales in 2026 are at the mercy of an economy that sees top earners’ incomes rise, while wages for the rest of consumers stagnate or fall.
In 2025, the top 10% of income-earners were able to drive ecommerce sales higher, powered by significant increases in the value of stocks and real estate.
In something of a virtuous cycle, heavy AI investment in both the people working for AI enterprises and the infrastructure needed to power the ongoing AI transformation is creating the wealth needed to keep the economy humming.
All this means that retailers need to think more carefully about what they are selling, to whom they’re selling it and how they need to adjust to the financial realities of their customers.
The top 10% of earners in the U.S. are responsible for the greatest proportion of consumer spending on record, going back to 1989 when the metric was first tracked.
SPENDING BY THE TOP 10%
Ecommerce trends 2026
Despite the headwinds and consumers’ uncertainty, ecommerce sales continued to grow during 2025. Looking at same-store online sales, ecommerce spending was up 6% for the year, according to Signifyd data.
The year closed out strong, with an encouraging performance during the Q4 holiday shopping season. Online spending during the Cyber Five period was up 10% over the previous Cyber Five, according to Signifyd data, stoking optimism for 2026.
In fact, looking at 2025’s overall performance, every key vertical, but one, finished in positive territory for the year.
Ecommerce had a good year in 2025 with some verticals having a much better year than others.
THE REAL ECOMMERCE GROWTH STORY IS IN THE VERTICALS
Luxury goods and auto parts had a banner run in 2025, while leisure and outdoor, apparel, and grocery all had strong showings. Only sales in the beauty and cosmetics category fell below their 2024 sales for the year.
The State of Commerce 2026 report breaks down performance and relevant factors by key verticals, looking at sales numbers, inflation rate and fraud threats.
Given the differences in real-world experience for individual verticals, it's tempting to think of them as individual industries all their own.
Consider that in a year when luxury goods saw online sales rise 19% higher than in 2024, beauty and cosmetics saw its sales drop by 4%.
Agentic commerce in retail
Yes, agentic commerce hype is frequently outrunning reality. And no, you won’t stop hearing about agentic commerce in 2026.
It is a real thing and the day is coming when bots will search, shop and buy for the humans directing them. Instances in which bots are doing all the work today are exceedingly rare.
That makes 2026 a crucial time to prepare for the brave new world. No, agentic commerce is not going to replace more traditional approaches to online shopping or shopping in stores. But like innovations before it, it will become a significant channel and an approach to commerce that merchants can’t afford to ignore.
In October 2025 alone, conversions from AI referrals increased by 1,247% over the previous October, according to Signifyd data. Adobe reported in July 2025 that traffic from AI agents was up 4,700% for the year.
And while skeptics might be wondering what all the fuss is about, it seems a new advance is announced almost daily.
Google early this year announced its Universal Commerce Protocol. It is working with retail leaders such as Shopify, Wayfair, Etsy, Walmart, Target and Home Depot among others. Visa said it’s working with dozens of retail partners and that it had enabled hundreds of agent-initiated transactions on its Visa Intelligent Commerce Platform.
For now there is work to be done on building the payment pathways and plumbing that will facilitate agentic-driven transactions. Innovators are hard at work on those and the protocols that will dictate how the agentic commerce world runs.
As important is the work that is needed to win over consumers who have expressed reluctance to hand over their wallets and payment credentials to bots they barely know.
When Worldpay surveyed consumers, they found that 63% of respondents were willing to let AI agents hunt for the best price on a purchase. 44% said they would let agents search for the product. Only 6% were ready to let a bot actually make the purchase on their behalf.
Returns management innovation
Online returns have ballooned into a $260 billion challenge for retailers. Not only are retail returns growing in cost, they’re growing in complexity.
Some retailers have reacted to an increase in fraudulent and abusive returns by charging for returns. As many as 72% of merchants take that approach, according to NRF and Happy Returns. Others increase the scrutiny they apply to products coming back for a refund.
The barriers, which either cost customers money or delay their refunds by weeks in some cases, are not popular with consumers.
Not only that, but they treat all customers the same — whether they are long-time, loyal shoppers, consumers trying out a merchant for the first time or an unscrupulous fraudster looking to get an expensive product for free.
Future-focused retailers are turning to technology solutions driven by AI and aimed at providing visibility into the identity and intent behind each refund request.
Knowing who is returning and why means retailers can apply the appropriate amount of friction or no friction at all in order to protect the business and provide experiences that keep valuable customers coming back again and again.
Signifyd customers have reduced the number of manual returns inspections required by as much as 58% and seen the portion of customers receiving instant refunds increase to 50% from 35%, for example.
The innovative approach to refunds and returns has the potential to turn a costly post-purchase burden into a competitive differentiator.
The state of commerce in the EMEA and LATAM
Online sales in Europe and the UK increased by 9% in 2025. 2026 promises to be a year in which merchants weave agentic commerce strategies with evolving regulator requirements.
In Mexico and Brazil rapid ecommerce growth is being accompanied by changing consumer habits. 2026 promises to be a year of continued growth in the region.
UK & EUROPE ONLINE SALES BY VERTICAL — 2025 VS. 2024
LATAM ONLINE SALES BY VERTICAL - 2025 vs. 2024
State of Commerce Report 2026
Discover how dramatic macroeconomic trends, personal household finance realities and developing innovation in returns and agentic commerce are shaping ecommerce in 2026.