Growth in U.S. ecommerce spending rebounded in the month leading up to the Trump Administration’s announcement that it would impose significant tariffs on goods being imported into the country — before announcing it would suspend many of those new tariffs for 90 days.
This is one of those times when the historical data can barely keep up with the history-in-the-making. For the record, U.S. online sales increased by 8% in March over March 2024, according to Signifyd Ecommerce Pulse data. That was an improvement over February’s 2% annual increase. Moreover, all but two retail categories finished the month in positive growth territory compared to a year ago.
Suffice it to say, a lot of people have become a lot more interested in economic indicators as the United States finds itself on trade-war footing. The thing about economic indicators is that there are at least two kinds: those that look back and those that potentially chart the future.
Signifyd Ecommerce Pulse data provides a benchmark for the tariff era
Signifyd’s monthly Ecommerce Pulse data report is backward-looking, but it does provide a benchmark for the world before the Trump Administration’s major tariff announcement on April 2, and its pause of many of those tariffs on April 9.
The Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales report — due out Wednesday — is also backward-looking. Chances are the March figures for “non-store” sales will reflect the direction of Signifyd’s reporting — as it has historically.
While the month had a solid showing compared to February’s 2% annual increase, the performance was not dramatic enough up or down to draw conclusions concerning the tariff talk’s impact on consumer spending. The month’s growth was nearly identical to January’s 9% growth at a time when Trump’s tariffs were more abstract.
One possibility is that the threat of coming tariffs spurred more spending in advance of higher prices — particularly for certain items, like groceries. Conversely, it’s possible that February’s sluggish performance was a result of anxiety over tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada that President Trump threatened to enact early in March, before immediately suspending them — possibly easing anxiety and opening up wallets.
Coming months should provide more clarity on the effects of tariff moves
That picture should become clearer in the coming months as consumers reach their own conclusions about the effect of existing tariffs and the likelihood that the paused tariffs will rise again.
Trump reverses reciprocal tariffs
Within hours of reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners going into effect, Trump reversed himself and paused them for 90 days.
March ecommerce sales numbers outshine February
Meanwhile, March ecommerce spending represented something of a turn-around from February, seeing sales decline in only two retail categories — electronics and general merchandise, industry speak for online department stores.
March 2025 ecommerce sales vs. March 2024 ecommerce sales |
| Grocery | +26% |
| Luxury | 4% |
| Home goods | 8% |
| Leisure & outdoor | 6% |
| Apparel | 4% |
| Electronics | -8% |
| Auto parts | 2% |
| General merchandise | -6% |
| Beauty & cosmetics | 1% |
| All categories | 8% |
Source: Signifyd’s Commerce Network data
Several long-running trends continued in March, with the grocery category showing the biggest spending increase, based in part on rising prices for some goods. Grocery is also a relative newcomer to ecommerce, meaning consumers are becoming more accustomed to buying groceries online and are buying a greater volume through digital channels. In fact, grocery transactions were up 31% in March over a year ago.
Shoppers also continued to trade down, particularly in the grocery category, spending more overall but less on average for each order placed. The average order value in grocery was down 4% year over year, while the number of items in each order increased by 34% over March 2024.
Photo by Getty Images
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